For many San Antonians, a recent string of high-profile restaurant closures has painted a bleak picture of the food industry. But new data suggests Alamo City's culinary future is far from cooked: Texas is expected to post the fastest food industry job growth in the U.S. by 2032, according to new analysis.

A recent study from the nationally recognized Auguste Escoffier School of Culinary Arts compared all 50 states to determine their job prospects for chefs and head cooks, restaurant cooks, and food service managers based on three key metrics: projected growth rates from 2022-2032; "absolute job creation" (the total number of projected new positions) during the same 10-year span, and actual job growth rates from 2022-2024.

Texas' culinary industry is expected to grow by 24.88 percent by 2032, the report found, which is the highest projected growth rate nationwide. That translates to more than 52,000 culinary jobs created within the next six years.

Escoffier also broke down individual projections across all three metrics:

• 45,150 new restaurant cook jobs, a 39.72 percent increase
• 3,580 new chef and head cook jobs, a 19.76 percent increase
• 3,340 new food service manager jobs, a 15.17 percent increase

"The top three states alone — Texas, California, and Florida — will add nearly 130,000 culinary jobs, almost 45 percent of all jobs created in this industry (despite those states making up about 28 percent of the nation’s population)," the report said. "This demonstrates an extraordinary scale of opportunity for job seekers willing to relocate to states with booming restaurant scenes."

Major Texas cities, including San Antonio, are home to numerous award-winning chefs who are defining the local restaurant scenes. In 2019, the James Beard Foundation created a Best Chef: Texas category after previously lumping the state’s talent in with the Southwest. The new classification has led to increased visibility for local chefs on the national stage. On January 21, 7 local restaurants were named as semifinalists for the “Oscars of the food world.”

The buzz around headlining chefs does not mean that independent restaurants are faring well in an industry increasingly dominated by chains. And, as Escoffier notes, projections are just one factor among many that determine the strength of the national culinary industry. Texas' combined actual culinary job growth from 2022-2024 is down 0.28 percent when compared to expectations.

"This simply means that, over the past few years, the state appears to have underperformed growth projections; the industry still grew in that state, but perhaps not as much as anticipated," the report's author clarifies. "Given the short timeframe (2022-2024), this category plays a small role in our rankings relative to the ten-year projections."

Washington led the U.S. with the most new culinary jobs added from 2022-2024, with 5,800 positions created during that time. Escoffier said Washington handily beat expectations that only 1,300 jobs would be added, representing a 348 percent "overperformance."

The top 10 states with the fastest-growing culinary industry are:

• No. 1 – Texas
• No. 2 – California
• No. 3 – Georgia
• No. 4 – Florida
• No. 5 – Washington
• No. 6 – North Carolina
• No. 7 – Utah
• No. 8 – Arizona
• No. 9 – Nevada
• No. 10 – Alabama