COVID-19 Watch

Here is when the COVID-19 pandemic could peak in San Antonio, according to experts

New models predict when the COVID-19 pandemic could peak in SA.

CDC

One of the most difficult parts of navigating our new reality is the unknown: Will I get sick? Will my loved ones be safe? When will it end? We have yet to learn many of the answers, but newly released projections are providing a potential timeline for when COVID-19 will peak in San Antonio.

The new data, released on April 15, was complied by four different research teams for the City of San Antonio using mobility data, hospital resources, population density, and current case counts from the Centers for Disease Control and Texas DSHS, and other factors.

If current stay home/work safe and social distancing measures remain in place, most models project San Antonio's COVID-19 pandemic to peak in early May. As a state, Texas is projected to hit its peak on April 29.

Interestingly, each team came up with differing conclusions — including wildly different answers for the number of cases expected in San Antonio — something that city officials say could help them prepare for a variety of different scenarios.

“The public should think of these models like they would a hurricane tracking model. They provide a range of data estimates for officials to consider along with a host of other information to make informed decisions on how to continue slowing the spread of COVID-19," explains assistant city manager Dr. Colleen Bridger.

The projections, however, do not mean that cases will end. Instead, they are an estimate as to when we can expect medical resources to hit peak use, aka, when hospitals are treating the most patients for COVID-19.

“Making it through the peak of this pandemic doesn’t mean it’s over. San Antonio will continue dealing with COVID-19 for months after the peak and we should continue to practice social distancing and good hygiene," says Bridger.

The first study, conducted by University of Texas at San Antonio, UT Health, and SwRI, analyzed four potential timelines to determine what would happen if:

Current social distancing measures remain in place
20 percent of the population returning to "normal mobility" (basically, conducting themselves as they did pre-pandemic)
50 percent of the population returning to "normal mobility"
100 percent of the population returning to "normal mobility"

If current measures stay in place, the model predicts a total 30,000 cases of COVID-19 through July, and suggest the current social distancing measures be kept in effect for the next two months. If 20 percent were to return to business as usual, that case number would hit 168,000 by July. If half the population stopped social distancing, that number would climb 641,000 by June. And if those measures were to lift immediately, San Antonio's COVID-19 cases could potentially soar to 800,000 within one month.

The second model was conducted by Dr. Juan B. Gutierrez, Chair of the University of Texas at San Antonio’s Mathematics Department. His model analyzed these four timelines:

If no social distancing measures had been in place
If the Stay Home Work Safe Orders are lifted completely
If high levels of social distancing continue
If the Stay Home Work Safe Orders are lifted but medium levels of social distancing continue

Gutierrez's model predicts that if no social distancing measures been put in place, San Antonio would have seen a mind-boggling 900,000 cases of the novel coronavirus.

“An early response prevented an explosion in the number of cases. Had the Mayor and County Judge not acted early, the crisis would have been significantly larger," Gutierrez says in his report. "The city lockdown has slowed down the progression of the disease [and] allowed the health system to prepare for what is likely to be an inevitable surge."

The third model, Oliver Wyman COVID-19 Pandemic Navigator, was perhaps the most optimistic, predicting just 1,700 cases through May, with a peak in late April. It's important to note, however, that this model assumed that the current social distancing measures were in place.

The fourth model was conducted by the University of Washington, the state with that is among highest impacted by the virus. That model did not predict a number of cases, but did predict a late April peak as well.

As of April 16, San Antonio-Bexar County had 890 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 37 deaths.

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San Antonio City Council votes to end horse-drawn carriage rides by 2030

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Horses will no longer pull carriages on the streets of downtown San Antonio.

Life for a horse in San Antonio is about to look a lot different. City Council has unanimously voted (with one abstention) to phase out the use of horse-drawn carriages over the next five years. That means by January 1, 2030, there will be none on the streets at all; instead, there will be electric carriages.

These plans have been in the making since 2022 — if not always at the same level of intensity — when District 2 Councilmember Jalen McKee-Rodriguez and District 3 Councilmember Phyllis Viagran wrote up some concerns about the horses' wellbeing. A special session at the end of October 2024 hinted to San Antonians that the end for this practice was neigh — sorry, nigh — and the final vote was made on December 12. In addition to accepting the plan, it extended its timeframe by two years.

The initial proposal included worries about the horses' exposure to traffic and pollution, as well how their presence might exacerbate those issues for the environment at large by slowing traffic. It also raised concerns about the effects of standing or walking on hard surfaces for too long, or spending time in extreme weather.

At the December 12 meeting, San Antonians gave impassioned speeches about animal welfare — both to call attention to the need for better conditions and to defend the reputations and jobs of current horse drivers — but it wasn't the first time the council heard from the public about the issue.

In a prior city survey, 50,476 respondents weighed in. Of those respondents, 51.98 percent said they liked the idea to "Transition horse-drawn carriages to electric carriages and pedicabs and ban horse drawn carriages completely." There were alternative solutions listed, but respondents were less drawn to them.

A cultural divide emerged in the data and continued in the December meeting: some people avoided the carriages because they worried about the treatment of the horses, while others enjoyed them because of their historical echoes and living legacy. Many speakers in favor of the plan used this to form their argument, raising questions about history versus progress.

More tangible objections to the plan hinged on the businesses — specifically five companies — and jobs that would be lost, which was the main factor behind extending the adjustment period.

Discussions about the particulars of the electric vehicles are still to come, as confirmed in the discussion near the end of the meeting. Councilmember Jalen McKee-Rodriguez addressed concerns about what would happen to the horses, mentioning the Brady Hunter Foundation as a future partner in finding them rescue homes.

Some council members also brought up rhetorical questions about animal exploitation by groups like Sea World, the San Antonio Stock Show & Rodeo, military and police forces, and even various groups in the Fiesta parade, although these did not come with a formal motion to pick the issues up.

This decision could have a ripple effect on other Texas cities. Dallas has recently considered a similar ban, but it appears to have stalled; Austin's attempts at a ban have been unsuccessful, but according to the Austin-American Statesman, only one operator is permitted to bring horses downtown. She declines to do so because the long hours are unfair to her and the horses. Houston does have horse-drawn carriages, and there seems to be little conversation about banning them.

Cities like Chicago and Salt Lake City have led the charge in the United States with some of the most prominent successful bans. Other cities around the world with bans include Brussels and Guadalajara, which both switched to electric models. Bans that have been around for years, like Guadalajara's and Prague's, still aren't out of the woods — people are still pushing back on the decision, so it sounds like San Antonio still has much work cut out for it.

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San Antonio City Council votes to end horse-drawn carriage rides by 2030